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<text id=90TT1075>
<title>
Apr. 30, 1990: Soviet Union:Running Out Of Gas?
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1990
Apr. 30, 1990 Vietnam 15 Years Later
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
WORLD, Page 44
SOVIET UNION
Running Out Of Gas?
</hdr>
<body>
<p>As Gorbachev lays siege to Lithuania, the republic begins to
debate the wisdom of its dash to independence
</p>
<p>By John Kohan/Vilnius
</p>
<p> No one really expected Deputy Prime Minister Algirdas
Brazauskas to be the bearer of good news when he appeared
before the Lithuanian Supreme Council last Friday morning. But
the report that he delivered still came as a shock. Standing
beneath a huge yellow-green-and-red national flag, the burly
leader of the Lithuanian Communist Party offered a
gloom-and-doom scenario of what lay ahead for the breakaway
Baltic republic in the aftermath of President Mikhail
Gorbachev's decision to cut back drastically on oil and gas
shipments. "Understand me correctly," said Brazauskas, leaning
on the blond wood lectern. "I have never tried to frighten
anyone or spread panic. We have to speak about things as they
are. I see no way out."
</p>
<p> As Brazauskas explained, with only one out of four
natural-gas pipelines still in operation, the republic could
meet just 16% of its daily needs. That would be enough to keep
bakeries, meat-processing plants and other essential factories
running but would bring most industries "to their knees."
Meanwhile, oil shipments had been completely cut off. Though
Lithuanian authorities immediately declared that each car could
receive only 8 gal. of gas a month, the supply was not expected
to last for more than two weeks. Lithuanians could also expect
shortages of rubber for making cables and sneakers, sodium for
soap powder and television screens, and sugar for candies and
confections. Concluded Brazauskas: "We need new political
decisions to get us out of our dead end."
</p>
<p> Those were bitter words for a parliament whose members had
voted only six weeks earlier, 124 to 6, to declare independence
from the Soviet Union. But despite the economic crisis, there
was virtually no sign last week that the rebellious Lithuanians
were about to retreat. When President Vytautas Landsbergis
addressed the group later in the day, he reaffirmed that the
government was ready to carry on discussions with Moscow "at
all levels, over any question"--except the republic's
declaration of independence. Moscow's use of "blockade as a
means of political warfare," said Landsbergis, has turned the
republic into a "disaster area, a zone of economic
aggression." But if Lithuanians were going to be worse off, he
declared, so were their neighbors. That was a reference to the
heavily militarized Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which
receives its fuel supplies through Lithuanian territory.
</p>
<p> The pain quickly became apparent at gas stations, where cars
often waited 60 and 70 in line to buy their last 2 1/2 gal.
before the stricter rationing rules took effect. Otherwise,
there was a strange sense of unreality at the front line of
Moscow's economic war. Vilnius residents, many of them
following the parliamentary debate over transistor radios, took
advantage of a brilliant spring day to stroll Gediminas
Boulevard and look into shopwindows that even in the worst of
times have been better supplied than Moscow's. There were no
signs of hoarding or panic buying. Said a youthful patriot,
with bravado: "How can our lives be any worse than they have
already been under 50 years of Communist rule?"
</p>
<p> That remained to be seen. The full dimensions of Gorbachev's
shock treatment were simply too difficult for Lithuanians--or anyone else--to absorb. Lithuanians still held out hope
that the West would exert more political pressure on the
Kremlin. Or perhaps Gorbachev himself would relent and open the
way for negotiations. And if not? Alluding to the 900-day siege
of Leningrad by the Nazis during World War II, Landsbergis
said: "We can survive a blockade just as Leningraders once did:
by enduring strict rationing and helping one another. They
never thought of capitulation, and we don't either."
</p>
<p> What Landsbergis did not mention is that close to 1 million
Leningraders died of starvation during the Nazi assault.
Gorbachev's strategy is not to starve the republic into
submission. Lithuania can feed itself, and consumes only about
60% of the meat and milk it produces. In fact, Moscow's
strangulation strategy is carefully calibrated to hurt but not
kill.
</p>
<p> Thus, for the moment at least, Lithuanians could afford to
unite around Landsbergis. As the impassioned debate about the
republic's future was going on in parliament on Friday, word
spread through Vilnius that special Soviet security units were
moving in on a Communist Party printing plant. By the time a
crowd of concerned local citizens had arrived on the scene,
nearly 20 soldiers had already beaten twelve demonstrators and
formed a phalanx. Printing workers waved Lithuanian flags from
an upper window and used ropes to pull up parcels of food from
the cheering crowd, over the heads of their unwanted guards.
Some protesters even carried banners with the hammer and sickle
of the Soviet Union linked with the Nazi swastika. Said
newspaper editor Algimantas Cekuolis: "We will bring
sandwiches, coffee and flowers--even for the soldiers. That
is the Lithuanian way. But we will watch this place day and
night. As long as Mr. Gorbachev wants."
</p>
<p> Until Moscow decided to reduce the energy flow to a trickle,
the dispute with Lithuania had been a bizarre war of feints and
jabs from the Kremlin. A month ago, the Soviets sent columns
of armored vehicles rumbling through downtown Vilnius in an
attempt at intimidation. Paratroopers seized control of local
Communist Party buildings and hunted down army deserters who
were seeking shelter in hospital wards. Now Moscow demands that
Landsbergis and his colleagues repeal a series of laws passed
in the past few weeks, including legislation that halted
conscription into the Soviet army, allowed the seizure of
Communist Party property and introduced citizen identity cards.
</p>
<p> The Kremlin moves should not have come as a surprise. Two
weeks ago, on Good Friday, the Kremlin gave Vilnius a deadline
of two days to revoke its new "anticonstitutional" laws, noting
that such actions "can no longer be tolerated." If the
Lithuanians failed to comply, Moscow warned, the U.S.S.R. would
stop deliveries of goods "sold on the external market for
freely convertible currency." Just what that meant would become
all too clear.
</p>
<p> The Lithuanian government let the holiday weekend pass
before discussing a response. Prime Minister Kazimiera
Prunskiene asked Moscow for an urgent meeting to resolve the
dispute. There was no answer. The Lithuanian parliament also
showed willingness to compromise on the issues bothering Moscow--short of independence--but warned Lithuanians to be
prepared for "spiritual endurance and strict economy on all
consumption." While Vilnius residents paused to buy daffodils
and listen to chanting Hare Krishna disciples in a park near
Communist Party headquarters, they seemed unconcerned about a
long siege.
</p>
<p>THE POOR STEPCHILD
</p>
<p> Almost 50 years of Soviet domination have made Lithuania's
dream of independence very difficult to achieve. Soviet
planners did help Lithuania industrialize, but they never set
out to build a self-sustaining economy there. Rather, the
republic was turned into an export center, with its raw
materials coming from elsewhere. Since Moscow can do without
TV channel changers longer than Vilnius can do without oil, it
is a sure formula for dependency.
</p>
<p> The Soviet Union relies on Lithuania for:
</p>
<qt> <l>-- 3% of its meat</l>
<l>-- 5% of its butter</l>
<l>-- 6% of its refrigerators and freezers</l>
<l>-- 30% of its tractor parts</l>
<l>-- 100% of its tank and tractor carburetors</l>
<l>-- 100% of its TV channel changers</l>
<l>-- 100% of its household electricity meters</l>
</qt>
<p> Lithuania relies on the Soviet Union for:
</p>
<qt> <l>-- 37% of its fertilizer</l>
<l>-- 58% of its sugar</l>
<l>-- 100% of its cotton</l>
<l>-- 100% of its oil</l>
<l>-- 100% of its gas</l>
<l>-- 100% of its coal</l>
<l>-- 100% of its metals</l>
<l>-- 100% of its tractors</l>
<l>-- 100% of its autos</l>
</qt>
</body>
</article>
</text>